I planned -- hoped, really -- to fly an hour or so this morning before I drove to Exton. The forecast looked promising despite strong winds at 3,000. I review the local TAFs (KMDT, KLNS, KRDG) but always apply cautious doubt to visibility and wind forecasts, as the prog chart and winds aloft provide a better idea of what will be happening on the ground 12 or 24 hours from now.
So after dinner I drove out to Smoketown, set up the Aerotherm heater, shoveled the dusting of snow away from the front of the hangar, and did a preflight check of the engine and airframe before locking up.
I woke at 0545 this morning and hopped on the Aviation Weather Service site (http://aviationweather.gov/adds/).
Here's the METAR trend from 0553 to now (0700 EST). I've highlighted the items that give me pause:
All this tells me it won't be ideal flying weather for the Chief. The narrow temp/dewpoint spread tells me fog is likely, or at least the high probability of carb ice, especially early in the climb out before the engine heat has warmed the oil pan.
The varying wind directions and strength across so small and area tells me the air will be rough early, making flying a lightly-wing-loaded A/C like the Chief a real chore.
Couple this with pavement-only landing (the turf is covered in 1/2 of snow) and it just won't be much fun. So I scrubbed this morning's flight and plan on trying again tomorrow.
So after dinner I drove out to Smoketown, set up the Aerotherm heater, shoveled the dusting of snow away from the front of the hangar, and did a preflight check of the engine and airframe before locking up.
I woke at 0545 this morning and hopped on the Aviation Weather Service site (http://aviationweather.gov/adds/).
Here's the METAR trend from 0553 to now (0700 EST). I've highlighted the items that give me pause:
KLNS 091153Z 29009KT 10SM CLR M04/M08 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP225 70010 T10441078 11011 21044 53019The current TAFs:
KLNS 091053Z AUTO 29007KT 10SM CLR M04/M07 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP216 T10391067
KLNS 090953Z AUTO 27008KT 4SM BR CLR M03/M04 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP211 T10331039
KMDT 091156Z 32006KT 10SM CLR M04/M07 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP230 40001 70021 T10391072 11006 21039 52017
KMDT 091056Z 29013KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP223 T10221072
KMDT 090956Z 30011KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP218 T10221067
KRDG 091154Z 31007KT 10SM CLR M03/M07 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP224 70008 T10331072 11006 21033 53019
KRDG 091054Z 28007KT 2 1/2SM FEW026 M01/M05 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 10 SLP216 T10111050
KRDG 090954Z 30008KT 2 1/2SM CLR M01/M04 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 10 SLP209 T10111039
And the Area Forecast:
KMDT 091124Z 0912/1012 29013KT P6SM SKC FM091400 30010KT P6SM SKC
KLNS 091124Z 0912/1012 29007KT P6SM SKC FM091400 29008KT P6SM SKC
KRDG 091121Z 0912/1012 30010KT P6SM SKC FM092300 VRB03KT P6SM SCT150
SERN...SCT030. VIS 3-5SM BR. 12Z SKC. OTLK...VFR.
All this tells me it won't be ideal flying weather for the Chief. The narrow temp/dewpoint spread tells me fog is likely, or at least the high probability of carb ice, especially early in the climb out before the engine heat has warmed the oil pan.
The varying wind directions and strength across so small and area tells me the air will be rough early, making flying a lightly-wing-loaded A/C like the Chief a real chore.
Couple this with pavement-only landing (the turf is covered in 1/2 of snow) and it just won't be much fun. So I scrubbed this morning's flight and plan on trying again tomorrow.
Wise decision, Dan!
ReplyDeleteDriving to work this morning I wondered how good a decision it was -- The air was spectacularly clear though the wind had picked up a bit. If I had flown safety would not had been compromised but comfort and enjoyment would have.
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